In this blog post, we'll take a closer look at the topic of value betting. While searching for a profitable sports betting strategy, you've probably come across the term “value bet” before. Using examples, we'll explain what value bets are, how to find and calculate them, and why they're particularly lucrative for sports bettors.
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WHAT ARE VALUE BETS?
Value bets refer to bets where you estimate the probability of an event to be higher than the odds offered by the bookmaker. You look for bets where the bookmaker offers a “false” probability as the odds.
This requires a thorough analysis of the game and a good understanding of probabilities. The following factors play an important role in analyzing a sports bet:
- Current form of the teams (last five games)
- Squad strength (depth of squad)
- Lineup
- Offensive strengths vs. defensive weaknesses and vice versa
- Number of goals
- Home and away record
- Weather
A value bet occurs when a bettor finds odds from a bookmaker that are higher than their calculated probability. You'll learn how to convert odds into probability and vice versa later in this article.
WHERE DOES THE TERM “VALUE” COME FROM?
In sports betting, the term refers to the perceived value (added value) of a bet compared to the odds offered by bookmakers. A “value bet” is therefore a bet in which the bettor believes the actual value of a bet is higher than the odds offered by the bookmakers.
CALCULATING VALUE BETS
Calculating value bets can be done using a simple mathematical formula. To determine how much value a bet actually has, you need two values:
- Bookmaker's odds
- Even certain probabilities of occurrence
The formula is: Odds * your own probability of occurrence in % / 100. The result must be greater than 1. Only then is it a value bet. The greater the value above 1, the more value the bet has.
However, if the result is below 1, do not place a bet and look for a new bet with value.
PROBABILITIES AND FAIR ODDS
All reputable bookmakers calculate their odds as best as possible using countless statistics, methods, and current news. To find value bets, it's important to convert the odds into probabilities to find fair odds.
For example, odds of 1.00 correspond to a 100% probability. Odds of 2.00 correspond to a 50% probability.
Example: Using a classic 3-way bet, we will explain how to convert the odds into probabilities:
Team A win: 1.45
Draw: 4.90
Team B win: 6.60
Use the following formula to convert the odds into a probability:
Probability = (1/odds) * 100
In our example, the bookmaker assumes the following probabilities for a home win, a draw, and an away win:
Team A win: 69%
Draw: 20.4%
Team B win: 15.2%
Adding up all the probabilities, you get 104.6%. The bookmaker has therefore incorporated his margin of 4.6% into the odds. This is also called the odds key.
Now that we know the bookmaker's probabilities for the outcome of the bet, we can compare our calculated probability with that of the bookmaker.
Let's assume that the away team's most important player was injured shortly before kickoff. Therefore, we predict a 75% chance of a home win for Team A.
Since our probability of a home win is higher than that of the bookmaker, we have found a value bet.
Using the following formula we can convert our probability into an odds:
Odds = (1/Probability) * 100
In our example, for a home win with a 75% chance, this corresponds to odds of 1.33. Since the bookmaker offers us odds of 1.45, which is higher than our odds, this is a value bet.
THE “COIN TOSS” EXAMPLE
This can also be illustrated with the example of a coin toss. The chance that the coin will land on heads or tails is always 50%. A fair odds ratio in this case would be 2.00 (=(1/50)*100).
Whether you bet on heads or tails, in the long run you should win as much money as you lose.
Let's assume that the person flipping the coin offers you the following odds:
Heads: 1.95 (51.28%)
Tails: 2.05 (48.78%)
In this example, you'll make a profit in the long run if you bet on “tails” on every roll, because the offered probability is lower (48.78%) than the actual probability of 50%. This is therefore a value bet.
WITH EXPERT KNOWLEDGE FOR LONG-TERM SUCCESS
Anyone who thinks it's easy to find value bets and make profits with sports betting will be disappointed. Only with expert knowledge of a sport, league, or team can you gain an information advantage over the bookmaker.
Therefore, it's crucial to build a network where information is shared quickly. This information advantage can be used to place a value bet before the bookmaker adjusts the odds.
Your sources should quickly provide you with the following information about a team:
- Loss of important players
- Weather conditions
- Space conditions
- Unrest in the club
- And many more
If you process this information before the bookmaker adjusts his odds, you will find many value bets and can make profits in the long run.
Note: Value bets don't necessarily mean that the bets are correct. This simply means that the probability of the bet coming true is higher than the bookmaker indicates. For example, you could place 1,000 value bets and still incur a loss. If this is the case, you need to revise your analysis.
ARE VALUE BETS SUITABLE FOR BEGINNERS?
Value bets are a popular strategy and are more suitable for experienced sports bettors, as they require in-depth analysis and knowledge of the sport being bet on. Furthermore, a certain understanding of probabilities and the ability to assess bookmakers' odds are essential.
For beginners, placing successful value bets can be difficult at first. This is usually due to a lack of knowledge and skills in correctly assessing bookmakers' odds.
Before you start betting, it's important to take the time to understand the sport and the factors that influence the outcome of a game. Start with small stakes and familiarize yourself with different betting strategies. Determine whether your strategy is successful in the long run or not. Only then should you increase your bets.
WHICH BOOKMAKERS HAVE VALUE BETS?
Value bets can be found at all bookmakers. Bookmakers' odds vary slightly depending on the sport and league. This is due to the odds key used by the bookmaker.
You can therefore regularly find value bets at the following non GamStop casinos with fair odds:
CONCLUSION: THAT’S WHY VALUE BETS ARE SO IMPORTANT
Emotions or preferences for a team have no place in value betting. It's all about evaluating the bookmaker's odds as fair or not.
Value bets offer the potential for long-term profits. This is because you only bet on games where you estimate your own odds to be higher than those of the bookmakers.
An important factor in the search for value bets is researching and analyzing statistics and other relevant information. It's crucial to remain disciplined and avoid placing impulsive bets on a whim.
Overall, value bets are an important strategy for successful betting. They allow you to achieve long-term profits while minimizing risk.
FAQ – QUESTIONS & ANSWERS ABOUT VALUE BETTING
Value bets are useful because they create a long-term advantage over the bookmakers. By placing bets where the probability of an event is estimated to be higher than the odds offered by the bookmakers, you can generate long-term profits.
Because bookmakers often don't adjust their odds perfectly to the actual probabilities, they sometimes offer “undervalued” bets. Value bets allow bettors to identify and profit from these opportunities.
Yes, you can also place value bets in live betting. Especially if you follow the game live and notice a trend, you can profit from it.
The risk of value betting depends on your ability to determine the probability of a particular outcome as accurately as possible. The better you calculate the probability, the lower your risk and the more profit you will make.
If you find that you are losing money with your value bets in the long run, you should revise your approach to analyzing your bets.
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