Polymarket

Polymarket Review

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market that experienced a veritable boom, especially during the US presidential campaign between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. This platform, much like a non GamStop casino operates outside the UK's national self-exclusion program, functions in a distinct, less-regulated digital niche, creating a space for participation beyond traditional boundaries. But what exactly is behind the platform where millions of dollars are wagered daily on politics, society, sports, and the economy?

In this article, I'll not only share my experiences with Polymarket, but also provide a simple guide on how you can participate and what you should pay attention to.

Polymarket: Advantages & Disadvantages at a Glance

Before I go into more detail about my experiences with Polymarket, I would first like to present the most important advantages and disadvantages of the platform so that you can decide for yourself whether Polymarket is the right choice for you:

Advantages of Polymarket

Decentralized platform: All transactions at Polymarket are decentralized and can be viewed publicly at any time in the Polygon blockchain.

Low fees: Order fees at Polymarket are negligible.

Diverse betting options: At Polymarket you can bet on almost anything – from political events and economic trends to pop culture topics and even the existence of aliens.

Easy to access: You just need to connect your wallet to Polymarket and you can start betting immediately.

You don't bet against the house: At Polymarket, you don't bet against the house, but directly against other players, which ensures more transparency and exciting betting opportunities.

Disadvantages of Polymarket

Sometimes high spreads: Because liquidity is limited in some markets, the price differences between buy and sell orders can be larger.

Only stablecoins accepted: For people who have had no prior experience with crypto, this can be an obstacle, as they first have to buy USDC and set up a wallet.

Manipulation possible: Larger betting participants (whales) can sometimes strongly influence the markets.

What Is Polymarket? 

Polymarket is a decentralized platform that allows its users to bet on current events in areas such as sports, politics, and economics. Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan in Manhattan, New York City, Polymarket secured $ 4 million in funding for its launch, supported by prominent investors like Polychain and ParaFi Capital.

The platform has since become the world's largest prediction market. Polymarket reached its peak in October 2024 with a monthly volume of nearly US$2 billion and over 191,000 active traders.

How Does Polymarket Work?

Polymarket is based on the Polygon blockchain. It's a Layer 2 scaling solution built on Ethereum. To use Polymarket, users simply need to link their crypto wallet (such as MetaMask ) to the platform. There is no KYC (Know Your Customer) process.

Bets are placed using the stablecoin USDC (on the Polygon chain). Polymarket is based on a binary betting system – the various outcomes can therefore only be answered with either ” yes ” or ” no “. 

If your prediction is correct, you will be rewarded with USDC. 

What Events Can You Bet on at Polymarket?

Once you've linked your wallet to Polymarket, a world of betting opportunities opens up to you. In principle, you can bet on almost anything.

Currently, Polymarket is focusing on the following topics:

Political events: elections, legislative proposals, international conflicts

Economic developments: interest rate decisions, labor market reports, company sales

Cryptocurrencies: Price movements, market trends, token adoption

Entertainment and culture: award ceremonies, film releases, sporting events

You can even bet on the existence of aliens at Polymarket.

Below I have listed a few specific bets that are currently attracting a particularly large number of betting enthusiasts (and therefore, of course, capital):

• Will President Donald Trump end the war in Ukraine within the first 90 days of 2026?
• Will there be a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in 2026?
• Will Bitcoin break through $100,000 in Jan 2026?
• Will Elon Musk buy MSNBC?

How Do Polymarket Trades Work?

On Polymarket, you can buy and sell shares – similar to a traditional online broker. The shares always range between 0.00 and 1.00 USDC and represent the outcomes of future events (e.g., “Will the US confirm the existence of aliens in 2024?”). 

These rates are determined by supply and demand and are therefore, similar to the stock market, not fixed but rather result from current market movements. The prices reflect how much buyers are willing to pay and how much sellers are willing to accept. They thus show the market's opinion on the probability of an event.

The prices (odds) on Polymarket reflect the current probability of an event occurring. For example, a share price of 0.14 USDC in a market predicting whether Barcelona will win the Champions League in 2025 indicates a probability of 14%. 

If you believe in FC Barcelona, you could buy shares for 0.14 USDC. If Barcelona then wins the Champions League, the value of all your shares will rise to 1 USDC, which in this case would be a profit of 86 cents per share. All users who bet on other clubs will receive nothing.

Polymarket Calculation Example – for Better Understanding

To make this clearer, here's another example:

A new bet is launched on Polymarket: “Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in 2024?”

Initially, the share price is 0.5 USDC for both “Yes” and “No”. 

Anton buys 1000 shares for a total of 500 USDC.

In November, Bitcoin rises from $95,000 to $110,000, prompting more and more people to buy “Yes” shares.

The increased demand is driving the “Yes” share price up to 0.75 USDC (i.e., a 75% probability).

Conversely, the share price for the “No” option automatically drops to 0.25 USDC (i.e., a 25% probability).

In December, the price finally reaches $120,000 – in this case, Anton receives 1.00 USDC for each of his “Yes” shares.

Anton receives 1,000 USDC and has thus doubled his investment.

At Polymarket you don't bet against a provider (“the house”), but directly against other users – i.e., Player versus Player. 

Important to know: Since betting on Polymarket is a free market between supply and demand, you are not bound to your bet. You can sell your shares at any time at the current market price – for example, if your opinion has changed due to recent news. Or if the probability has already increased in your favor and you want to realize a profit before the event actually occurs. 

How Do Polymarket Rewards Work?

With Polymarket's ” Liquidity Rewards Program, ” you can earn money by placing limit orders that help stabilize the market. The closer your orders are to the current market price, the higher your reward will be. 

You can view your daily rewards and available markets at any time on the “Rewards” page. To earn rewards, your orders must be within the maximum spread, which varies for each event. Rewards are paid out daily at midnight (UTC).

Polymarket Guide: How to Place Your First Bet?

Want to place your first bet on Polymarket but don't know where to start? Don't worry, I've prepared a short step-by-step guide below!

Step 1: Register at Polymarket

First, you obviously need to register with Polymarket. To do this, you either need to provide your email address or connect to a wallet like MetaMask or Phantom. The latter is more practical, as you'll need a wallet anyway to place bets. 

Step 2: Deposit USDC

After successful registration, Polymarket will ask you to deposit USDC. USDC is a “stablecoin” whose value is pegged 1:1 to the US dollar.

During registration, Polymarket prompts you to deposit USDC – or to buy it.

You have the following options to choose from:

Buy USDC: Directly on Polymarket using a credit card.

On-Chain Deposit: Deposit USDC from an exchange (e.g. Binance or Bitget ) or your wallet (e.g. MetaMask).

External services: Alternatively, you can also use Apple Pay, PayPal or Google Pay as a payment provider.

In my opinion, the easiest (and cheapest) option here is on-chain deposit.

A deposit via the Polygon Chain usually takes less than 5 minutes.

Step 3: Select an Event

Once your account is funded, you can select an event to bet on. At Polymarket, you'll find a wide variety of markets covering current topics such as politics, economics, and pop culture. 

Click on an event that interests you to see the available betting options and odds. On the Polymarket homepage, you'll find all the events that are currently attracting the most speculators. Of course, you can also use the filter function to specifically search for events that match your interests.

You can filter either via the main menu at the top or via the left-hand menu bar.

Step 4: Buy Outcome Shares

Have you spotted an event you'd like to bet on? Then all you need to do is buy the corresponding shares. Simply click on your chosen event and select the outcome (Yes or No).

When you enter the amount of USDC you are willing to spend on the bet, the platform will show you three important pieces of information:

What the average price of the shares is.

How many shares you will receive for that.

What return you can expect if your bet is successful.

Using the order form on the right, you can buy either “yes” or “no” shares at Polymarket.

Step 5: Trading Shares

As mentioned previously, you are not bound to your shares until the end of their purchase. Polymarket offers you the flexibility to sell your acquired shares on the open market at any time.

The order form shows you how much liquidity is available. Therefore, you should always pay attention to the spread to avoid unnecessary costs.

Step 6: Resolution of the Bet

Once a bet is settled, the bet is automatically closed and you receive your winnings or losses based on the outcome of the event. No further trades are possible on the market from this point onward.

Once the betting result is confirmed, open trading is suspended and the winnings are paid out.

By the way: The exact criteria are clearly defined in the market descriptions on Polymarket, so you always know the rules by which the results are evaluated. In the unlikely event of any ambiguity, Polymarket's Integrity Committee (MIC) will decide and find a fair solution.

Step 7: Pay out the Money

If you wish to withdraw your USDC, simply click the “Portfolio” button in the Polymarket dashboard and then “Withdraw”. Next, enter the USDC address (important: via the Polygon network) to which you wish to send the USDC.

Polymarket Experiences and Reviews

Of course, I also looked at the experiences other users have had with Polymarket. The reviews of the forecasting platform are quite polarized.

While some users praise Polymarket for its decentralized nature and wide range of betting options, it also faces criticism. Many traders particularly appreciate the fact that at Polymarket you bet against other players, not the house. Furthermore, Donald Trump's victory demonstrated that the odds at Polymarket can be more accurate than those reported in mainstream media polls.

On the other hand, there are also many negative reviews, which mainly focus on the legal uncertainty and the complicated handling for crypto novices. Some traders also mention the risk that larger market participants could manipulate the probabilities with their capital.

Are There Any Fees Associated with Polymarket?

According to Polymarket, they do not charge any fees themselves. This means that no fees are incurred for deposits, withdrawals, or trading itself. However, a small fee of 2% of the profit is charged on successful bets. This revenue is used to cover transaction costs and compensate liquidity providers. 

Additionally, a small portion of this fee is used to cover transaction costs on the Polygon blockchain (which is usually negligible). 

How Does Polymarket Provide Liquidity?

Polymarket utilizes automated market makers (AMMs) to provide liquidity on the platform. Additionally, the Liquidity Reward Program incentivizes traders to provide liquidity themselves by placing limit orders. This allows you, as a user, to buy shares at any time without relying on a direct counterparty.

These market makers provide liquidity on Polymarket and in return receive fees in the form of transaction costs.

Is Polymarket Safe?

Polymarket uses smart contracts to automatically manage and execute transactions. These ensure that all betting and trading activities are transparent and tamper-proof. Whenever you place a bet or buy shares, it is immediately recorded on the blockchain and publicly viewable. This is the only way to guarantee that the process is secure and, above all, tamper-proof.

Another factor contributing to Polymarket's security is its use of non-custodial wallets. These are digital wallets for cryptocurrencies where you, as the owner, are the only person who can access them. All you need is your private key, which you receive immediately upon creation and should keep safe and secret. Polymarket itself never has access to the assets in your wallet.

Is Polymarket Legal?

Currently, Polymarket is indeed still in a legal gray area. In January 2022, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined the platform $1.4 million and issued a cease and desist order for violating US regulations. 

However, legal uncertainties apparently still exist. On November 13, 2024, the FBI searched the home of Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan and seized his cell phone. According to Bloomberg News, the US Department of Justice is investigating Polymarket. The situation in the UK, however, remains unclear at this time.

Conclusion

Since the US presidential election in October 2024, Polymarket on X and other platforms has been on everyone's lips.

And for good reason: Polymarket was the first to establish a decentralized platform where users can bet transparently and directly against each other. And they can bet on virtually all relevant events currently affecting the world. 

The platform not only offers exciting betting opportunities, but also innovative features such as the ” Liquidity Rewards Program “, which allows active users to earn additional money by placing limit orders. 

Whether Polymarket can be profitable in the long run is highly questionable, given the statistical analyses from the analytics portal LayerHub. According to these analyses, more than 87% of all participants lose money on the platform. The overlap with traditional gambling is therefore undeniable.

FAQ About Polymarket 

Disclaimer:

This review is an independent review of Polymarket, with no influence from the casino itself. Our opinions are intended to inform and guide players honestly and transparently.

Please gamble responsibly and remember that gambling should always be a form of entertainment, never a way to escape personal or financial issues. If gambling is causing problems in your life, seek assistance from professional organizations designed to help with gambling addiction.